美國理海大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)教授安東尼·奧布里恩（Anthony O’Brien）近日發(fā)文稱，由于美聯(lián)儲采取了錯誤的貨幣政策，美國很可能將在未來一年內(nèi)陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

The US economy seems headed for a recession later this year or early next year. A recession would make clear that the new monetary policy strategy the Federal Reserve announced in August 2020 has been a failure.

種種跡象表明，美國可能在今年晚些時候或明年年初陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，從而證實(shí)美聯(lián)儲在2020年8月宣布的新貨幣政策以失敗告終。

The Fed’s new strategy represented a break with the approach it had adopted in response to The Great Inflation of 1968-1982, when inflation eventually soared above 10 percent. Although oil price shocks contributed to the Great Inflation, most economists believe that Fed policy failures were the reason the inflation was so severe.

美聯(lián)儲的新戰(zhàn)略意味著背離1968年至1982年大通脹時習(xí)得的應(yīng)對策略，當(dāng)時通脹率突破了10%。盡管油價危機(jī)引發(fā)了大通脹，但是多數(shù)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲最初的決策失誤是當(dāng)時通貨膨脹如此嚴(yán)重的原因。

The Great Inflation taught the Fed that monetary policy should preempt increases in inflation before they became embedded in the economy. Changes in monetary policy can take a year to have their full effect, so the Fed needed to begin raising interest rates when the unemployment rate dropped below the so-called natural rate of unemployment, even if inflation had not yet begun to accelerate. The Fed was still following this approach in 2015, when it raised its target for the federal funds rate even though its preferred measure of inflation was still below its 2 percent target.

那次大通脹讓美聯(lián)儲學(xué)會一個道理，那就是應(yīng)該趕在通貨膨脹對經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生深入影響之前施行貨幣政策。貨幣政策的變動需要一年時間才能完全發(fā)揮作用，因此美聯(lián)儲應(yīng)該在失業(yè)率降到自然失業(yè)率以下時就上調(diào)利率，即使那時候通脹還未加速。2015年美聯(lián)儲依然遵循這一規(guī)律行事，盡管當(dāng)時通脹率還未達(dá)到2%的目標(biāo)值，但是美聯(lián)儲已經(jīng)上調(diào)了聯(lián)邦基金的利率。

By July 2019, a majority on the Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee had come to believe that with no sign of inflation accelerating, they could safely cut the federal funds rate. The formal change came in August 2020 when they announced that they were adopting a flexible average inflation target (FAIT). Rather than viewing 2 percent as effectively a ceiling on inflation, they now would allow inflation to rise above 2 percent provided that it averaged 2 percent over an unspecified period. They also would no longer focus mainly on the unemployment rate in assessing the state of the labor market.

2019年7月，美聯(lián)儲所屬的聯(lián)邦公開市場委員會的多數(shù)人認(rèn)為，在沒有跡象顯示通脹會加速的情況下，下調(diào)聯(lián)邦基金利率是安全的。2020年8月，委員會宣布將采用靈活的平均通脹目標(biāo)制。現(xiàn)在他們不再將2%視為通脹天花板，而是允許通脹率上升到2%以上，只要通脹率在期限不詳?shù)囊欢螘r間內(nèi)均值保持在2%即可。他們在評估勞動力市場狀態(tài)時也不再以失業(yè)率為主要標(biāo)準(zhǔn)。

There are two key problems with the Fed’s new monetary policy strategy. First, it’s unclear by how much inflation can exceed the 2 percent target or for how long it needs to stay there before the Fed will react. Second, by waiting until it has exceeded the 2 percent target, the Fed has abandoned the decades-long policy of preempting inflation.

美聯(lián)儲的新貨幣政策存在兩個關(guān)鍵問題。第一，不清楚美聯(lián)儲在通脹率超過2%的目標(biāo)值多少或多久時才會采取行動。第二，眼看著通脹率超過2%的目標(biāo)值卻不作為，美聯(lián)儲已然拋棄了長達(dá)數(shù)十年的先通脹而行的方針。

It seems unlikely that inflation can be brought down to 2 percent until the real federal funds rate becomes positive. While rapid increases in interest rates should succeed in reining in inflation, they are also likely to cause a recession. As Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has noted, in every similar case since 1960, when the Fed has had to respond to a rapid increase in inflation, the result has been a recession.

如今除非聯(lián)邦基金利率上升，否則美國通脹率不可能降到2%。快速提高利率盡管可以抑制通貨膨脹，但也會導(dǎo)致經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。亞特蘭大聯(lián)邦儲備銀行行長拉斐爾·博斯蒂克指出，自1960年以來，每次類似的通脹率飆升迫使美聯(lián)儲采取應(yīng)對措施，結(jié)果都是經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

The new monetary policy strategy the Fed adopted in August 2020 has left it without good options. It can follow the present course of slowly increasing interest rates, which will allow high inflation to persist for at least the next two years, or it can increase rates more rapidly, which will bring down inflation, but likely push the economy into a recession.

美聯(lián)儲在2020年8月采取的新貨幣政策已經(jīng)讓其沒有選擇余地。美聯(lián)儲可以按現(xiàn)行方式逐漸上調(diào)利率，這樣會讓高通脹至少再持續(xù)兩年，也可以快速上調(diào)利率抑制通脹，但卻很可能使經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退。

英文來源：國會山報

翻譯&編輯：丹妮