盡管美國(guó)三月份就業(yè)增長(zhǎng)強(qiáng)勁，家庭積蓄見漲，但是在通貨膨脹“高燒不退”的情況下，美國(guó)前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)、投資大佬及各投行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家都紛紛預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)將于2023年陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

The US economy added nearly half a million jobs in March. The Dow Jones industrial average is within 6% of its record high. And US households accumulated roughly $2.5 trillion in excess savings throughout the pandemic.

三月份美國(guó)增加了近50萬(wàn)就業(yè)崗位，道瓊斯工業(yè)平均指數(shù)漲幅創(chuàng)下6%的新高，美國(guó)家庭在疫情期間的儲(chǔ)蓄總額累計(jì)達(dá)近2.5萬(wàn)億美元（約合人民幣15.9萬(wàn)億元）。

Still, despite all the good news, predictions of an impending recession are widespread on Wall Street.

盡管這些都是好消息，但是華爾街卻普遍認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)即將陷入衰退。

Billionaire investors, former Federal Reserve officials, and now even investment banks have repeatedly warned that the economy may hit a wall in 2023.

億萬(wàn)富翁投資人、美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)前官員甚至連投資銀行都反復(fù)警告美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)可能在2023年出現(xiàn)危機(jī)。

What’s driving the recent string of downtrodden economic forecasts?

是什么導(dǎo)致了近期這一連串對(duì)美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的唱衰之聲呢？

For some, it’s a matter of historical comparison. Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers emphasized in a recent Washington Post op-ed that current economic conditions are undeniably reminiscent of previous pre-recession periods in US history.

對(duì)某些人而言，這是歷史比較的結(jié)果。美國(guó)前財(cái)政部長(zhǎng)勞倫斯·薩默斯在近期發(fā)表在《華盛頓郵報(bào)》上的一篇專欄文章中強(qiáng)調(diào)，當(dāng)前的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況無(wú)疑讓人聯(lián)想起美國(guó)歷史上的幾次衰退前的情形。

"Over the past 75 years, every time inflation has exceeded 4% and unemployment has gone below 5%, the US economy has gone into a recession within two years,” Summers wrote.

薩默斯寫道：“在過(guò)去75年間，每次通脹率超過(guò)4%，失業(yè)率降到5%以下，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)就會(huì)在兩年內(nèi)陷入衰退。”

Today, the US inflation rate is nearing 8%, and the unemployment rate fell to just 3.6% in March. As a result, Summers now sees an 80% chance of a US recession by next year.

如今，美國(guó)通脹率接近8%，失業(yè)率在三月份降至3.6%。因此，薩默斯認(rèn)為美國(guó)有80%的幾率將在明年陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退。

The economists noted that the war in Ukraine has disrupted global supply chains and dramatically increased commodity prices and energy costs in the US and EU.

經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家指出，烏克蘭戰(zhàn)爭(zhēng)打亂了全球供應(yīng)鏈，大幅提升了美國(guó)和歐盟的商品價(jià)格和能源開支。

CIBC’s Pzegeo said that inflation can often lead to wealth destruction as well, especially when rising consumer prices outpace wage growth.

加拿大帝國(guó)商業(yè)銀行的波澤蓋奧稱，通貨膨脹往往也會(huì)導(dǎo)致財(cái)富縮水，尤其是在消費(fèi)價(jià)格漲幅超過(guò)工資漲幅時(shí)。

"It acts as a tax. So give it a little bit of time in the economy, and it’ll eat away at your wealth and set the stage for a recession,” he said.

他說(shuō)：“通貨膨脹的作用就如同征稅。假以時(shí)日，你的財(cái)富將會(huì)逐漸縮水，從而為經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退埋下了伏筆。”

Recent GDP forecasts from the Conference Board have also led to fears that a recession could be on the horizon. US real GDP growth is now expected to slow to an annual rate of just 1.7% in the first quarter of 2022, compared with 7% annual growth seen in the fourth quarter of 2020.

世界大型企業(yè)聯(lián)合會(huì)最近預(yù)測(cè)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值也引發(fā)了人們對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的擔(dān)憂。預(yù)測(cè)報(bào)告指出，2022年一季度美國(guó)的實(shí)際國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年化增速將放慢至1.7%，而2020年四季度美國(guó)的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值年化增速為7%。

For other economic forecasters, the Federal Reserve is the key to predictions of an impending recession.

其他經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測(cè)者指出，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)是預(yù)測(cè)美國(guó)是否會(huì)陷入經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的關(guān)鍵。

Now, with pandemic restrictions fading and inflation moving to highs not seen in four decades, the Fed is faced with a difficult task: ensuring a so-called soft landing for the US economy. The goal is to raise interest rates and end QE in order to cool economic growth and combat inflation—all without causing a recession.

眼下，隨著美國(guó)防疫限制措施逐步取消，通脹率創(chuàng)下四十年來(lái)的新高，美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)面臨著一個(gè)艱巨的任務(wù)：確保美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)所謂的軟著陸。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的目標(biāo)是提高利率，終結(jié)量化寬松政策，從而在不引發(fā)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退的情況下給經(jīng)濟(jì)降溫并抑制通脹。

Investing legend Carl Icahn—the founder and chairman of Icahn Enterprises who boasts an estimated fortune of over $15 billion—said in a March interview he believes the Fed isn’t up for the job.

投資界傳奇人物卡爾·伊坎在三月份的一次訪談中表示，他認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)做不到。伊坎是資產(chǎn)超150億美元的伊坎企業(yè)的創(chuàng)始人及董事長(zhǎng)。

"I really don’t know if they can engineer a soft landing,” Icahn said. “I think there’s going to be a rough landing.”

伊坎說(shuō)：“我真的不知道美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)要怎么實(shí)現(xiàn)軟著陸。我認(rèn)為一定會(huì)出現(xiàn)硬著陸。”

The billionaire now believes the US economy will see a recession “or even worse” by the end of next year, and Deutsche Bank’s economists agree.

這位億萬(wàn)富翁現(xiàn)在認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)在明年底前出現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退“甚至更糟”，對(duì)此德意志銀行的經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家也表示認(rèn)同。

"We no longer see the Fed achieving a soft landing. Instead, we anticipate that a more aggressive tightening of monetary policy will push the economy into a recession,” the bank’s economists, led by Matthew Luzzetti, wrote in a recent note.

以馬修·盧澤蒂為首的德意志銀行經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家在近日的一份備忘錄中寫道：“我們不再認(rèn)為美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)軟著陸。我們預(yù)期更激進(jìn)的貨幣緊縮政策將會(huì)使美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)陷入衰退。”

英文來(lái)源：財(cái)富雜志網(wǎng)站

翻譯&編輯：丹妮