據(jù)彭博社4月13日?qǐng)?bào)道，國(guó)際信貸組合經(jīng)理協(xié)會(huì)（IACPM）的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查顯示，信貸投資組合經(jīng)理們預(yù)測(cè)，未來(lái)一年企業(yè)違約率將上升，84%的受訪者認(rèn)為美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)有可能在2023年陷入衰退。

Washington: Credit portfolio managers are forecasting a rise in corporate defaults in the coming year while more than four-out-of-five participants see a chance of a US recession in 2023, according to a survey by the International Association of Credit Portfolio Managers.
根據(jù)國(guó)際信貸組合管理協(xié)會(huì)(IACPM)的一項(xiàng)調(diào)查，信貸投資組合經(jīng)理們預(yù)測(cè)，未來(lái)一年美企違約率將上升，超八成的受訪者認(rèn)為，美國(guó)有可能在2023年陷入衰退。

The poll found that 81 percent of fund managers see defaults picking up in the next 12 months, compared with 80 percent in the survey last December, as reduced bank liquidity and credit risk concerns land on top of macroeconomic issues. For North American corporates, 86 percent of respondents see defaults rising, while 91 percent see defaults rising in Europe.
調(diào)查發(fā)現(xiàn)，81%的基金經(jīng)理認(rèn)為未來(lái)12個(gè)月企業(yè)違約將加劇，而2022年12月的調(diào)查中這一比例為80%，原因是銀行流動(dòng)性減少，以及對(duì)信貸風(fēng)險(xiǎn)擔(dān)憂成為宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題的首要因素。86%的受訪者認(rèn)為北美企業(yè)違約率將上升，而有91%的受訪者認(rèn)為歐洲企業(yè)違約率將上升。

“Our members have expected to see the impact of rising interest rates for some time and we’re beginning to see more credit stress and defaults in corporate borrowers now,” Som-lok Leung, IACPM’s executive director, wrote in a statement. “Unfortunately, this could take some time to work its way through the system.”
IACPM執(zhí)行董事Som-lok Leung在一份聲明中寫道：“我們預(yù)計(jì)利率上升的影響將持續(xù)一段時(shí)間，現(xiàn)在我們開(kāi)始看到企業(yè)借款人面臨更多信貸壓力和違約。不幸的是，這可能需要一段時(shí)間才能在系統(tǒng)中顯現(xiàn)。”

Survey respondents are also predicting a recession in the US, with 84 percent expecting one to occur sometime this year. That’s higher than the 61 percent of participants who see a recession this year in Europe and the UK.
受訪者還預(yù)計(jì)美國(guó)將出現(xiàn)衰退，84%的人預(yù)計(jì)今年某個(gè)時(shí)候美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)會(huì)發(fā)生衰退。這一比例高于61%的受訪者認(rèn)為歐盟和英國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)今年將出現(xiàn)衰退。

IACPM survey participants see certain industries like health care, medium-sized tech companies and defense manufacturers facing tough times in the current environment. Commercial real estate was also cited, given work-from-home trends lowering office occupancy rates and property owners having to refinance in a higher interest rate environment.
IACPM調(diào)查參與者認(rèn)為，醫(yī)療保健、中型科技公司和國(guó)防制造商等某些行業(yè)在當(dāng)前環(huán)境下面臨艱難時(shí)期;商業(yè)房地產(chǎn)也被認(rèn)為是其中一員，因?yàn)榫蛹肄k公的趨勢(shì)降低了辦公室占用率，業(yè)主不得不在更高的利率環(huán)境下進(jìn)行再融資。

來(lái)源：彭博社
編輯：董靜，李蕙帆（實(shí)習(xí)）