盡管當(dāng)前我國(guó)面臨著疫情沖擊和外部挑戰(zhàn)，但是專家指出，隨著政府的一系列刺激政策落地生效，我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在三四季度將會(huì)加速增長(zhǎng)，并在合理區(qū)間內(nèi)保持穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行。

China is on track for a steady rebound in the third and fourth quarters as policy stimulus takes effect, and renewed COVID-19 outbreaks will be less disruptive to the supply chain, experts said.

專家稱，隨著刺激政策落地生效，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在三四季度將會(huì)穩(wěn)定復(fù)蘇，新一輪疫情也不會(huì)對(duì)供應(yīng)鏈產(chǎn)生太大破壞性影響。

They expect strong fiscal easing — notably in infrastructure spending — to shore up growth, better use of structural monetary tools and more government measures to further stimulate consumption, which will help boost domestic demand and build a strong national market.

專家預(yù)計(jì)強(qiáng)有力的財(cái)政寬松政策——尤其是在基建投資領(lǐng)域的寬松政策——會(huì)支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)，政府會(huì)更好地利用結(jié)構(gòu)性貨幣政策工具和采取更多措施來(lái)進(jìn)一步刺激消費(fèi)，這將有助于刺激內(nèi)需和營(yíng)造強(qiáng)大的國(guó)內(nèi)市場(chǎng)。

Luo Zhiheng, chief economist at Yuekai Securities, expected the growth to recover to 5 percent in the third and fourth quarters of the year, making a full-year V-shaped rebound.

粵開(kāi)證券首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家羅志恒預(yù)計(jì)三四季度能回歸5%的增速，全年經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)曲線呈現(xiàn)“V型”反彈。

To stabilize overall growth, Luo said it would be advisable to allocate some of the 2023 quota for local government special bonds in advance in the fourth quarter and to increase financial support for small and medium-sized enterprises, technological innovation and green development.

羅志恒認(rèn)為，為了保持經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)整體穩(wěn)定，應(yīng)在第四季度提前下達(dá)2023年地方政府的部分專項(xiàng)債額度，加大對(duì)中小企業(yè)、技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和綠色發(fā)展的財(cái)政支持。

For the second half of 2022, a recent meeting of the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China Central Committee urged efforts to keep the economy running within an appropriate range and to strive for the best possible outcome.

中共中央政治局近日召開(kāi)的會(huì)議提出，2022年下半年要努力保持經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行在合理區(qū)間，力爭(zhēng)實(shí)現(xiàn)最好結(jié)果。

It was decided that major economically developed provinces should play a leading role and provinces that are able to should strive to meet the objectives set for economic and social development this year.

會(huì)議決定，經(jīng)濟(jì)大省要勇挑大梁，有條件的省份要力爭(zhēng)完成經(jīng)濟(jì)社會(huì)發(fā)展預(yù)期目標(biāo)。

Zhu Haibin, JPMorgan's chief China economist, said the central government made a "practical" choice to de-emphasize the preset annual GDP growth target of around 5.5 percent in the face of unexpected shocks from COVID-19 and external challenges.

摩根大通中國(guó)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家朱海斌表示，在突如其來(lái)的疫情沖擊和外部挑戰(zhàn)下，中央政府淡化5.5%左右的全年GDP增長(zhǎng)目標(biāo)是切合實(shí)際的選擇。

Zheng Houcheng, director of the Yingda Securities Research Institute, said the five coastal provincial regions in southeast China that account for over one-third of China's economy — Fujian, Guangdong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces and Shanghai — will play a key role in stabilizing overall growth.

英大證券研究所所長(zhǎng)鄭后成指出，經(jīng)濟(jì)體量占全國(guó)三分之一的東南沿海5省市——福建、廣東、江蘇、浙江和上海將在穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)整體增長(zhǎng)方面發(fā)揮重要作用。

Local governments across China have recently accelerated measures to boost consumption, a major challenge to the national economy in the second half of the year, for example by encouraging car purchases and issuing consumption vouchers.

全國(guó)各地政府最近也加快推出刺激消費(fèi)的措施，比如鼓勵(lì)購(gòu)車和發(fā)放消費(fèi)券。下半年消費(fèi)市場(chǎng)復(fù)蘇是我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨的主要挑戰(zhàn)。

China's southwestern Yunnan province has released a plan for boosting consumption and stabilizing growth from 2022 to 2024, requiring efforts to develop online and offline consumption and encourage digital and intelligent transformation of traditional trade enterprises and to build Kunming into an international consumption center.

中國(guó)云南省政府印發(fā)《云南省促消費(fèi)穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)三年行動(dòng)計(jì)劃（2022-2024年）》，要求努力發(fā)展線上線下消費(fèi)，鼓勵(lì)傳統(tǒng)商貿(mào)企業(yè)向數(shù)字化智能化轉(zhuǎn)型，把昆明打造成國(guó)際消費(fèi)中心。

The northern port city of Tianjin is planning to unveil 20 measures to spur consumption, it said in a recently released document, with major focus on encouraging consumption of cars, housing, home appliances, and cultural tourism as well as stimulating new types of consumption.

天津新出臺(tái)了20條提振消費(fèi)措施，主要內(nèi)容是鼓勵(lì)汽車、住房、家電消費(fèi)和文化旅游以及培育新型消費(fèi)。

Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, Guangdong province, have also unveiled a series of measures, such as holding shopping events and giving out coupons and subsidies.

北京、上海、深圳和廣東也出臺(tái)了一系列措施，比如舉辦購(gòu)物節(jié)、發(fā)放消費(fèi)券和補(bǔ)貼等。

Ye Yindan, a researcher at the Bank of China Research Institute, said investment will also be a key growth driver.

中國(guó)銀行研究院研究員葉銀丹指出，投資也將是拉動(dòng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的主要?jiǎng)恿Α?/p>

To further spur consumption in the second half, Ye said the government should expand efforts to boost residents' confidence and expectations by beefing up support for the unemployed and low-income groups.

葉銀丹表示，為了在下半年進(jìn)一步刺激消費(fèi)，政府將通過(guò)加大對(duì)失業(yè)和低收入人群的扶持來(lái)努力提升居民的消費(fèi)信心和期望值。

She proposed adopting more measures, such as encouraging more promotions and sales on holidays, offering subsidies to buyers of new energy vehicles and green home appliances and easing restrictions on the recovery in services consumption amid COVID-19 outbreaks.

她建議采取更多措施，比如鼓勵(lì)節(jié)假日開(kāi)展更多促銷活動(dòng)，向購(gòu)買新能源汽車和綠色家電的消費(fèi)者提供補(bǔ)貼，放松限制疫情期間服務(wù)消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇的規(guī)定。

Looking ahead, Ye said China's economy will likely rebound quarter by quarter as the stimulus policy gradually takes effect, and the country will keep economic performance stable within a reasonable range in the second half.

展望未來(lái)，葉銀丹表示，隨著刺激政策逐步生效，中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)將會(huì)逐季度復(fù)蘇，我國(guó)下半年將會(huì)在合理區(qū)間內(nèi)保持經(jīng)濟(jì)穩(wěn)定運(yùn)行。

英文來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)

翻譯&編輯：丹妮